Shimotsuke City Housing Market Report 2025
Data updated 2026-11-10 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2
Key figures for 2025
- Median house price (land + building)
- ¥30.0M
- Residential land per m² (sales)
- ¥19k/m²
- -20.8% over 5 years
- Transactions in 2025
- 146
- #2 of 17 areas in Tochigi by price per m²
What the data says
Price growth is speeding up
House values per m² have risen about 3% a year over the past five years, faster than the 0.8% a year of the five years before. Buyers waiting for a dip have so far been paying more each year, and that has not yet changed.
Outperforming Tochigi
Per m², houses here are 69% above the Tochigi average. The premium has grown from 28% ten years ago, so Shimotsuke City has been outperforming its surroundings.
Station distance barely matters
Houses 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥22.0M and ¥39.0M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 0.9% between 2020 and 2025 (−3.5% for the wider area). Moves in and out roughly balanced in 2025. Households still grew 2.9% as people live in smaller households, which supports demand for smaller homes even as the population shrinks.
Typical vacancy
12.4% of homes were empty in 2023 (16.9% for the wider area), and 3.8% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. The level of abandoned homes is around the national norm.
Moderate earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 26% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (17% for the wider area). Post-1981 buildings are designed for this level of shaking, but check ground conditions and insurance.
Official land prices are edging up
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed +1% in the year to January 2026 and +2% over five years. They are still 34% below their 1991 bubble-era level. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Some flood or landslide exposure
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 6% are inside the worst-case flood zone. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Shimotsuke City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 58,995
- -0.9% since 2020
- Tochigi: -3.5%
- Net moves in 2025
- -22
- -0.37 per 1,000 residents
- Tochigi: -1.08
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 12.4%
- 3.8% empty and not for rent or sale
- Tochigi: 16.9%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥51k
- per month, all rented homes
- Tochigi: ¥48k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 25.8%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Tochigi: 16.5%
- Official land price 2026
- ¥37k/m²
- +0.9% in a year · +2.4% in 5 years
- Tochigi: ¥29k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 6.2%
- of 16 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Tochigi: 31.1%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 16 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Tochigi: 0.7%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT). Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Shimotsuke City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
House
¥7.5M
¥52k/m²
- Shiba
- Koganei
- Land 500 m² · floor 145 m²
- Built 1992 (33 yrs) · Wood
¥25.0M
¥238k/m²
- Koganei
- Jichi Medical University · 18 min walk
- Land 200 m² · floor 105 m²
- Built 2025 (0 yrs) · Wood
¥34.0M
¥324k/m²
- Ekihigashi
- Koganei · 9 min walk
- Land 135 m² · floor 105 m²
- Built 2024 (1 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | House |
|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥24.0M |
| 2008 | ¥16.0M |
| 2009 | ¥25.0M |
| 2010 | ¥24.5M |
| 2011 | ¥20.5M |
| 2012 | ¥24.0M |
| 2013 | ¥26.0M |
| 2014 | ¥24.0M |
| 2015 | ¥20.0M |
| 2016 | ¥23.0M |
| 2017 | ¥26.0M |
| 2018 | ¥22.0M |
| 2019 | ¥26.0M |
| 2020 | ¥25.0M |
| 2021 | ¥27.0M |
| 2022 | ¥24.5M |
| 2023 | ¥23.0M |
| 2024 | ¥26.0M |
| 2025 | ¥30.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | – |
Show data table
| Year | House | Land |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥183k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥157k/m² | ¥39k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥212k/m² | ¥42k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥195k/m² | ¥39k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥189k/m² | ¥47k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥174k/m² | ¥43k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥217k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥190k/m² | ¥33k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥181k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥200k/m² | ¥28k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥214k/m² | ¥32k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥160k/m² | ¥50k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥210k/m² | ¥32k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥178k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥236k/m² | ¥14k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥200k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥172k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥185k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥264k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥25k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | House |
|---|---|
| 0 | ¥264k/m² |
| 1 | ¥250k/m² |
| 50 | ¥76k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | ¥117k/m² | – | – |
| 2009 | – | ¥218k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥141k/m² | – | – |
| 2012 | ¥163k/m² | – | – |
| 2013 | ¥170k/m² | – | ¥226k/m² |
| 2014 | – | – | ¥222k/m² |
| 2015 | – | – | ¥243k/m² |
| 2016 | – | – | ¥229k/m² |
| 2017 | – | – | ¥260k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥138k/m² | – | – |
| 2019 | – | – | ¥287k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥147k/m² | – | – |
| 2022 | ¥170k/m² | – | – |
Prices near train stations in Shimotsuke City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jichi Medical University (自治医大) | – | – | ¥31.0M | 15 | 61 |
| Koganei (小金井) | – | – | ¥23.0M | 12 | 57 |
| Ishibashi(Tochigi) (石橋(栃木)) | – | – | ¥23.0M | 12 | 46 |
How much does a house cost in Shimotsuke City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥30.0M in 2025 across 54 sales.
Are property prices in Shimotsuke City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed -20.8%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.