Warabi City Housing Market Report 2025
Data updated 2026-11-10 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2
Key figures for 2025
- Median used condo price
- ¥31.0M
- ¥530k/m²
- Median house price (land + building)
- ¥48.0M
- Residential land per m² (sales)
- ¥370k/m²
- +42.3% over 5 years
- Transactions in 2025
- 199
- #6 of 61 areas in Saitama by price per m²
What the data says
Steady, predictable growth
Condo prices per m² have climbed about 3.8% a year, roughly in line with the previous five years. There is no sign of overheating or a sudden slowdown.
Lagging Saitama
Per m², condos here are 24% above the Saitama average. The premium was 30% ten years ago, so the rest of Saitama has been catching up.
Being near a station is worth a lot
Condos within a 5-minute walk of a station sell for about 81% more per m² than those 11–15 minutes away. If budget is tight, a longer walk is the quickest way to cut the price.
A family market
63% of recent condo sales have three or more bedrooms. Demand comes mainly from owner-occupier families, which tends to make prices steadier but rental yields lower.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all condo sales last year were between ¥21.8M and ¥40.5M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A growing population
The population grew 1.7% between 2020 and 2025 (−0.8% for the wider area). More people moved in than out in 2025, a net gain of about 4.1 per 1,000 residents, so demand for homes is being topped up by newcomers.
Few abandoned homes
10.1% of homes were empty in 2023 (9.3% for the wider area), and 3.3% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. Most empty homes here are rentals between tenants, not abandoned houses, a sign of a healthy market.
Buying vs renting
A median used condo costs about 39.9 years of the area's median rent (¥65k a month), compared with 33.5 years for the wider area. Prices are high relative to rents, so rental yields are thin and buyers are paying for expected growth. Rents here cover all rented homes, so treat this as a rough guide.
High earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 78% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (52% for the wider area). Check the building's earthquake standard (post-1981, ideally post-2000 for wooden houses) and consider earthquake insurance.
Official land prices are rising fast
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed +6% in the year to January 2026 and +26% over five years. They are still 39% below their 1991 bubble-era level. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Significant flood risk
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 100% are inside the worst-case flood zone (29% with expected depths of 3 m or more). Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Warabi City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 75,510
- +1.7% since 2020
- Saitama: -0.8%
- Net moves in 2025
- +309
- +4.09 per 1,000 residents
- Saitama: +3.08
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 10.1%
- 3.3% empty and not for rent or sale
- Saitama: 9.3%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥65k
- per month, all rented homes
- Saitama: ¥62k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 78.1%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Saitama: 52.1%
- Official land price 2026
- ¥331k/m²
- +5.9% in a year · +26.4% in 5 years
- Saitama: ¥122k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 100.0%
- of 7 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (28.6% 3 m or deeper)
- Saitama: 45.4%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 7 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Saitama: 0.2%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT). Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Warabi City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥21.0M
¥323k/m²
- Tsukagoshi
- Nishi Kawaguchi · 14 min walk
- 3LDK · 65 m²
- Built 1987 (38 yrs) · RC
¥32.0M
¥582k/m²
- Kitamachi
- Warabi · 13 min walk
- 2LDK · 55 m²
- Built 2011 (15 yrs) · RC
¥45.0M
¥692k/m²
- Chuo
- Warabi · 15 min walk
- 3LDK · 65 m²
- Built 2023 (3 yrs) · RC
House
¥32.0M
¥582k/m²
- Chuo
- Warabi · 5 min walk
- Land 45 m² · floor 55 m²
- Built 2025 (0 yrs) · Wood
¥50.0M
¥476k/m²
- Tsukagoshi
- Warabi · 11 min walk
- Land 70 m² · floor 105 m²
- Built 2025 (1 yrs) · Wood
¥60.0M
¥571k/m²
- Tsukagoshi
- Nishi Kawaguchi · 15 min walk
- Land 65 m² · floor 105 m²
- Built 2026 (0 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | – | ¥36.0M |
| 2008 | ¥20.5M | ¥40.0M |
| 2009 | ¥22.5M | ¥35.5M |
| 2010 | ¥33.0M | ¥39.0M |
| 2011 | ¥21.5M | ¥36.5M |
| 2012 | ¥16.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2013 | ¥16.0M | ¥39.0M |
| 2014 | ¥19.0M | ¥36.0M |
| 2015 | ¥22.0M | ¥38.0M |
| 2016 | ¥24.5M | ¥39.0M |
| 2017 | ¥25.0M | ¥41.0M |
| 2018 | ¥20.0M | ¥41.0M |
| 2019 | ¥24.5M | ¥40.0M |
| 2020 | ¥25.0M | ¥39.0M |
| 2021 | ¥28.0M | ¥44.0M |
| 2022 | ¥25.0M | ¥49.5M |
| 2023 | ¥25.0M | ¥50.0M |
| 2024 | ¥26.5M | ¥46.0M |
| 2025 | ¥31.0M | ¥48.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥48.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | – | ¥316k/m² | ¥280k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥317k/m² | ¥341k/m² | ¥270k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥331k/m² | ¥343k/m² | ¥270k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥600k/m² | ¥316k/m² | ¥230k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥348k/m² | ¥340k/m² | ¥245k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥291k/m² | ¥332k/m² | ¥220k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥273k/m² | ¥350k/m² | ¥245k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥317k/m² | ¥324k/m² | ¥240k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥357k/m² | ¥367k/m² | ¥240k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥384k/m² | ¥366k/m² | ¥265k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥416k/m² | ¥358k/m² | ¥275k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥373k/m² | ¥391k/m² | ¥280k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥423k/m² | ¥391k/m² | ¥260k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥400k/m² | ¥380k/m² | ¥260k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥446k/m² | ¥425k/m² | ¥320k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥431k/m² | ¥438k/m² | ¥320k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥441k/m² | ¥457k/m² | ¥310k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥463k/m² | ¥440k/m² | ¥335k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥530k/m² | ¥467k/m² | ¥370k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥491k/m² | – |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | – | ¥500k/m² |
| 1 | – | ¥487k/m² |
| 35 | ¥424k/m² | – |
| 36 | ¥445k/m² | – |
| 43 | ¥350k/m² | – |
| 44 | ¥418k/m² | – |
| 49 | ¥217k/m² | – |
| 50 | – | ¥246k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | – | – | ¥618k/m² |
| 2012 | – | ¥291k/m² | – |
| 2013 | – | ¥292k/m² | – |
| 2014 | – | ¥311k/m² | – |
| 2015 | – | ¥342k/m² | – |
| 2016 | – | ¥400k/m² | – |
| 2018 | – | ¥375k/m² | – |
| 2019 | – | ¥415k/m² | – |
| 2021 | – | ¥416k/m² | – |
| 2022 | – | ¥416k/m² | – |
| 2024 | ¥280k/m² | – | – |
| 2025 | – | ¥400k/m² | – |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | – | ¥399k/m² | – |
| 2009 | – | ¥389k/m² | – |
| 2011 | – | – | ¥379k/m² |
| 2012 | – | – | ¥373k/m² |
| 2013 | – | – | ¥395k/m² |
| 2014 | – | – | ¥368k/m² |
| 2015 | – | – | ¥389k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥237k/m² | – | ¥395k/m² |
| 2017 | – | – | ¥410k/m² |
| 2018 | – | – | ¥433k/m² |
| 2019 | – | – | ¥422k/m² |
| 2020 | – | – | ¥385k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Warabi City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warabi (蕨) | ¥28.0M | ¥488k/m² | ¥47.0M | 12 | 219 |
| Nishi Kawaguchi (西川口) | ¥29.0M | ¥457k/m² | ¥45.0M | 13 | 127 |
| Kita Toda (北戸田) | – | – | ¥81.5M | 13 | 21 |
| Toda(Saitama) (戸田(埼玉)) | – | – | ¥52.0M | 15 | 14 |
Used condo prices by layout in Warabi City
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥31.0M | 65 m² | 88 |
| 2LDK | ¥20.0M | 55 m² | 27 |
How much does an apartment cost in Warabi City?
The median used condo (mansion) in Warabi City sold for ¥31.0M in 2025, about ¥530k/m², based on 56 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Warabi City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥48.0M in 2025 across 100 sales.
Are property prices in Warabi City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +32.4% and residential land prices changed +42.3%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.