Shimabara City Housing Market Report 2025
Data updated 2026-11-10 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2
Key figures for 2025
- Median house price (land + building)
- ¥5.8M
- Residential land per m² (sales)
- ¥20k/m²
- +33.3% over 5 years
- Transactions in 2025
- 73
- #7 of 10 areas in Nagasaki by price per m²
What the data says
A long, slow decline
House prices per m² have been falling for a decade, by about 2.4% a year recently. Prices are low, but resale values are likely to keep easing, so buy here to live, not as an investment.
Lagging Nagasaki
Per m², houses here are 52% below the Nagasaki average. Ten years ago the gap was 35%, so Shimabara City has been falling behind the rest of Nagasaki.
Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 17% on the previous three years. Fewer sales mean less choice and slower resale, so allow more time to sell later.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥3.4M and ¥10.0M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 6.7% between 2020 and 2025 (−6.1% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 6.8 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand.
Many abandoned homes
18.3% of homes were empty in 2023 (17.3% for the wider area), and 11.7% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. That is a high share of truly abandoned homes (akiya), a sign of weak demand. Cheap houses are easy to find, but resale can be slow.
Lower earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 14% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (6% for the wider area). This is low by Japanese standards, although no part of Japan is free of earthquake risk.
Living in Shimabara City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 40,445
- -6.7% since 2020
- Nagasaki: -6.1%
- Net moves in 2025
- -277
- -6.85 per 1,000 residents
- Nagasaki: -4.55
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 18.3%
- 11.7% empty and not for rent or sale
- Nagasaki: 17.3%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥41k
- per month, all rented homes
- Nagasaki: ¥45k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 13.8%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Nagasaki: 5.8%
- Official land price 2026
- ¥29k/m²
- -0.7% in a year · – in 5 years
- Nagasaki: ¥38k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 0.0%
- of 4 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Nagasaki: 23.5%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 4 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Nagasaki: 23.0%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT). Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Shimabara City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
House
¥5.3M
¥35k/m²
- Shin-yama
- Shimabara Ko · 13 min walk
- Land 390 m² · floor 150 m²
- Built 1978 (47 yrs) · Wood
¥6.9M
¥53k/m²
- Shimbabamachi
- Shimabara · 11 min walk
- Land 200 m² · floor 130 m²
- Built 1989 (36 yrs) · Wood
¥10.0M
¥200k/m²
- Shimbabamachi
- Shimabara · 10 min walk
- Land 230 m² · floor 50 m²
- Built 2003 (22 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | House |
|---|---|
| 2008 | – |
| 2009 | ¥12.0M |
| 2010 | ¥10.4M |
| 2011 | ¥11.0M |
| 2012 | ¥8.0M |
| 2013 | ¥7.7M |
| 2014 | ¥7.0M |
| 2015 | ¥10.0M |
| 2016 | ¥5.8M |
| 2017 | ¥10.0M |
| 2018 | ¥7.3M |
| 2019 | ¥6.6M |
| 2020 | ¥8.5M |
| 2021 | ¥7.5M |
| 2022 | ¥5.2M |
| 2023 | ¥9.0M |
| 2024 | ¥5.3M |
| 2025 | ¥5.8M |
Show data table
| Year | House | Land |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | – | ¥21k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥78k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥88k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥69k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥51k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥61k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥46k/m² | ¥22k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥86k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥40k/m² | ¥26k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥63k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥63k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥44k/m² | ¥14k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥61k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥45k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥56k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥75k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥42k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥50k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Shimabara City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimabara (島原) | – | – | ¥6.9M | 16 | 41 |
| Soul Hill Park Gymnasium (霊丘公園体育館) | – | – | ¥7.2M | 8 | 14 |
| Mie (三会) | – | – | ¥3.0M | 9 | 13 |
| Shimabara Ko (島原港) | – | – | ¥5.3M | 16 | 11 |
How much does a house cost in Shimabara City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥5.8M in 2025 across 34 sales.
Are property prices in Shimabara City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed +33.3%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.