Nakatsu City Housing Market Report 2025
Data updated 2026-11-10 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2
Key figures for 2025
- Median house price (land + building)
- ¥11.0M
- Residential land per m² (sales)
- ¥14k/m²
- -10.0% over 5 years
- Transactions in 2025
- 148
- #6 of 8 areas in Oita by price per m²
What the data says
The trend has turned down
After rising earlier, house prices per m² have slipped by about 9.6% a year over the last five years. That often reflects weaker local demand, so check vacancy and population trends before buying.
Lagging Oita
Per m², houses here are 52% below the Oita average. Ten years ago the gap was 35%, so Nakatsu City has been falling behind the rest of Oita.
Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 10% on the previous three years. Fewer sales mean less choice and slower resale, so allow more time to sell later.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥2.1M and ¥27.8M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 3.3% between 2020 and 2025 (−4.2% for the wider area). More people moved in than out in 2025, a net gain of about 6.3 per 1,000 residents, so demand for homes is being topped up by newcomers. Households still grew 1% as people live in smaller households, which supports demand for smaller homes even as the population shrinks.
Many abandoned homes
20.2% of homes were empty in 2023 (19.1% for the wider area), and 10.9% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. That is a high share of truly abandoned homes (akiya), a sign of weak demand. Cheap houses are easy to find, but resale can be slow.
Lower earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 11% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (37% for the wider area). This is low by Japanese standards, although no part of Japan is free of earthquake risk.
Official land prices are edging up
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed +1% in the year to January 2026 and +1% over five years. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Some flood or landslide exposure
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 63% are inside the worst-case flood zone. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Nakatsu City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 80,169
- -3.3% since 2020
- Oita: -4.2%
- Net moves in 2025
- +504
- +6.29 per 1,000 residents
- Oita: -2.76
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 20.2%
- 10.9% empty and not for rent or sale
- Oita: 19.1%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥48k
- per month, all rented homes
- Oita: ¥45k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 11.0%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Oita: 37.1%
- Official land price 2026
- ¥22k/m²
- +0.6% in a year · +1.1% in 5 years
- Oita: ¥43k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 62.5%
- of 8 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Oita: 52.0%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 8 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Oita: 3.5%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT). Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Nakatsu City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
House
¥2.5M
¥6k/m²
- Yamakunimachimorizane
- Hita
- Land 480 m² · floor 410 m²
- Built 1979 (47 yrs) · Light steel
¥11.0M
¥122k/m²
- Oaza Tsunogi
- Nakatsu(Oita) · 24 min walk
- Land 180 m² · floor 90 m²
- Built 1990 (36 yrs) · Wood
¥28.0M
¥295k/m²
- Oaza Korenori
- Higashi Nakatsu · 7 min walk
- Land 220 m² · floor 95 m²
- Built 2026 (0 yrs)
Show data table
| Year | House |
|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥7.8M |
| 2008 | ¥10.0M |
| 2009 | ¥7.8M |
| 2010 | ¥10.0M |
| 2011 | ¥11.5M |
| 2012 | ¥10.0M |
| 2013 | ¥13.0M |
| 2014 | ¥7.5M |
| 2015 | ¥11.0M |
| 2016 | ¥9.0M |
| 2017 | ¥8.6M |
| 2018 | ¥13.0M |
| 2019 | ¥11.0M |
| 2020 | ¥13.0M |
| 2021 | ¥8.1M |
| 2022 | ¥13.0M |
| 2023 | ¥8.5M |
| 2024 | ¥10.0M |
| 2025 | ¥11.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥11.5M |
Show data table
| Year | House | Land |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥74k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥85k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥58k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥76k/m² | ¥17k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥106k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥71k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥100k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥61k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥75k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥66k/m² | ¥14k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥71k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥65k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥77k/m² | ¥14k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥114k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥58k/m² | ¥13k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥90k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥82k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥58k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥57k/m² | ¥14k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥85k/m² | ¥14k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | House |
|---|---|
| 0 | ¥237k/m² |
| 1 | ¥271k/m² |
| 50 | ¥28k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | – | ¥80k/m² |
| 2010 | – | ¥75k/m² |
| 2013 | – | ¥95k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥45k/m² | – |
| 2016 | – | ¥58k/m² |
| 2019 | – | ¥76k/m² |
| 2020 | – | ¥64k/m² |
| 2021 | – | ¥51k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥44k/m² | – |
| 2025 | – | ¥42k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Nakatsu City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakatsu(Oita) (中津(大分)) | – | – | ¥11.0M | 19 | 147 |
| Higashi Nakatsu (東中津) | – | – | ¥13.0M | 23 | 45 |
How much does a house cost in Nakatsu City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥11.0M in 2025 across 74 sales.
Are property prices in Nakatsu City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed -10.0%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.