Shimotsuma City Housing Market Report 2025
Data updated 2026-11-10 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2
Key figures for 2025
- Median house price (land + building)
- ¥9.5M
- Residential land per m² (sales)
- ¥8k/m²
- +11.7% over 5 years
- Transactions in 2025
- 80
- #27 of 32 areas in Ibaraki by price per m²
What the data says
A long, slow decline
House prices per m² have been falling for a decade, by about 2% a year recently. Prices are low, but resale values are likely to keep easing, so buy here to live, not as an investment.
Outperforming Ibaraki
Per m², houses here are 43% below the Ibaraki average. The discount has shrunk from 48% ten years ago, so Shimotsuma City is catching up with its surroundings.
Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 13% on the previous three years. Fewer sales mean less choice and slower resale, so allow more time to sell later.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥5.2M and ¥18.0M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 4.1% between 2020 and 2025 (−2.6% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 7.4 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand. Households still grew 2.5% as people live in smaller households, which supports demand for smaller homes even as the population shrinks.
Typical vacancy
14.4% of homes were empty in 2023 (14.1% for the wider area), and 6.8% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. The level of abandoned homes is around the national norm.
High earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 51% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (56% for the wider area). Check the building's earthquake standard (post-1981, ideally post-2000 for wooden houses) and consider earthquake insurance.
Official land prices are still falling
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed 0% in the year to January 2026 and -2% over five years. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Some flood or landslide exposure
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 50% are inside the worst-case flood zone. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Shimotsuma City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 40,785
- -4.1% since 2020
- Ibaraki: -2.6%
- Net moves in 2025
- -302
- -7.4 per 1,000 residents
- Ibaraki: -2.14
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 14.4%
- 6.8% empty and not for rent or sale
- Ibaraki: 14.1%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥46k
- per month, all rented homes
- Ibaraki: ¥50k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 51.4%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Ibaraki: 56.2%
- Official land price 2026
- ¥19k/m²
- -0.3% in a year · -1.9% in 5 years
- Ibaraki: ¥27k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 50.0%
- of 8 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Ibaraki: 26.5%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 8 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Ibaraki: 0.3%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT). Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Shimotsuma City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
House
¥1.5M
¥8k/m²
- Shimotsuma
- Shimotsuma · 10 min walk
- Land 1100 m² · floor 180 m²
- Built 2001 (25 yrs) · Wood
¥4.4M
¥46k/m²
- Kayo
- Shimotsuma · 25 min walk
- Land 180 m² · floor 95 m²
- Built 1991 (34 yrs) · Wood
¥15.0M
¥188k/m²
- Horigome
- Shimotsuma · 14 min walk
- Land 330 m² · floor 80 m²
- Built 1999 (26 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | House |
|---|---|
| 2007 | – |
| 2008 | ¥11.0M |
| 2009 | ¥10.0M |
| 2010 | ¥9.5M |
| 2011 | – |
| 2012 | ¥9.5M |
| 2013 | ¥7.6M |
| 2014 | ¥8.6M |
| 2015 | – |
| 2016 | ¥5.8M |
| 2017 | ¥12.0M |
| 2018 | ¥7.3M |
| 2019 | ¥5.0M |
| 2020 | ¥8.0M |
| 2021 | ¥8.8M |
| 2022 | ¥10.0M |
| 2023 | ¥11.5M |
| 2024 | ¥10.5M |
| 2025 | ¥9.5M |
Show data table
| Year | House | Land |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | – | ¥13k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥88k/m² | ¥13k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥74k/m² | ¥9k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥83k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2011 | – | ¥9k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥98k/m² | ¥6k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥70k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥74k/m² | ¥9k/m² |
| 2015 | – | ¥15k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥53k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥92k/m² | ¥7k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥77k/m² | ¥5k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥49k/m² | ¥6k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥83k/m² | ¥7k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥67k/m² | ¥7k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥85k/m² | ¥11k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥64k/m² | ¥6k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥73k/m² | ¥9k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥46k/m² | ¥8k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | House |
|---|---|
| 0 | ¥238k/m² |
| 50 | ¥25k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Shimotsuma City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimotsuma (下妻) | – | – | ¥10.0M | 14 | 51 |
| Sodo (宗道) | – | – | ¥9.2M | 9 | 21 |
| Daiho (大宝) | – | – | ¥9.5M | 18 | 10 |
How much does a house cost in Shimotsuma City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥9.5M in 2025 across 35 sales.
Are property prices in Shimotsuma City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed +11.7%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.